Emotional cycle on the night of the career high, 275 players

The tally

Positive, about 2 in 3Negative, about 1 in 3

What chance alone gives

Positive, 14 of 28 daysNegative, 14 of 28 days

On the night they did the best they ever did, these players’ emotional cycle was positive nearly twice as often as not. Half the time would be chance. The positive half is 14 of 28 days.

What was counted

A career high is a clean thing to count. It is a single published game, with a published date, for a player with a published birth date. For each of the 275 players the author computed the three cycles for that date and noted the state of each: positive or negative, and which of the eight symbols.

He then counted. The question he was asking was simple: on the night a player did the best he ever did, where did his cycles tend to be?

What the count showed

The emotional cycle was positive, in the top half of its 28 days, nearly twice as often as it was negative. The intellectual cycle leaned positive too, less strongly. The physical cycle did not lean much either way, which surprised the author, who had expected a scoring night to need a body at its best.

He also noted that the players with two or three cycles positive at once appeared more often in the list than those with one or none. From this he drew the rule he used for the rest of his life: in basketball, the emotional cycle together with either of the other two.

What it cannot show

A tally like this is worth keeping, and it is worth reading carefully. Three things limit it.

  • There is no comparison group. We know where the cycles sat on 275 great nights; we do not know where they sat on the thousands of ordinary nights the same players had. A positive emotional phase covers 14 of every 28 days, so about half of all games, good and bad, fall in it.
  • It is one person’s count, made by hand, and the working was not published. The ratio survives; the 275 names and dates do not appear in the journal.
  • A career high depends on much that is not in a calendar: the opponent, an injured teammate’s minutes, a hot night. The journal lists those causes itself.

The larger studies that looked for the cycles in sport, with comparison groups and published data, did not find them. Our evidence page sets them out.